Jul 26, 2022
Preview Start: (0:50)
Jason Logan Seattle Atlanta Falcons: https://www.covers.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons-season-betting-preview-2022
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1. This team is going to be awful. They lost Matt Ryan who was extremely stable at QB, they lost Ridley, their top wide receiver to playing DraftKings, and their second best WR Gage, to Tom Brady. 2. They have a young coach and play caller in Arthur Smith who is extremely conservative and ran the ball on early downs at a very high rate last season. He also shows few tendencies to want to be innovative on offense. 3. It is likely they commit to Marcus Mariota and not rookie QB Desmond Ridder from the draft. 4. This means Smith likely increases his run rate with Mariota’s mobility, their best skill player (Patterson) working out of the backfield, and a poor pass blocking offensive line. 5. The defense, specifically the secondary, could be sneaky good and finish the season around 13-16th. No cornerback duo on a 2022 roster allowed fewer combined yards than AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward who start 1-2 for ATL this season. 6. The market knows this team is likely to be the worst in football. You won’t find much value betting any of the season long props under. The market has adjusted to their week one matchup against the Saints which has the lowest total on the board at 41. But, you might find is opportunity to bet the team under frequently week to week the rest of the season. The Falcons secondary could limit the speed at which opponents blow them out, if they happen to have a lead, Smith likely gets conservative and if playing from behind, it is tough to trust Mariota and the lack of skill players to come back.